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非洲如何利用技术破坏机会!|出海非洲现金贷岛群第28期

2020-02-02 20:22:01

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技术中断已不再是任何行业的新闻。诸如人工智能,机器学习,云计算,机器人技术,3D打印和物联网(IoT)之类的术语正日益变得司空见惯。

 

一项新研究断言,这些破坏性技术如果得到适当利用,就能改变非洲。但是,人们仍然担心非洲可能没有完全准备好从所谓的第四次工业革命(4IR)中获得好处。

 

在最近的布鲁金斯学会研究中,他与高级央行行长兰德里·西涅(LandrySigné)合着,前中央银行行长恩当古教授(Ndung'u)现在是非洲经济研究财团的执行董事。他说:“到目前为止,非洲似乎还没有之所以称其为21世纪,是因为它仍然落后于ICT领域的改善,而后者在很大程度上是由扩展移动数字金融服务推动的。

 

然而,对非洲而言,这还不是所有的厄运和忧郁。该地区在2018年拥有近一半的全球移动货币账户,并将在2025年之前实现最快的移动货币增长。移动技术和服务已创造了170万个直接工作(正式和非正式),贡献了1,440亿美元(14.4万亿先令)该研究表明,经济价值(占撒哈拉以南非洲地区GDP的8.5%),并通过税收为公共部门贡献了156亿美元(1.6万亿先令)。

 

但是,非洲大陆可以做更多的事情来利用技术进步带来的巨大机遇。报告说,数字化解决了金融系统和劳动力市场中的信息不对称问题,从而在信息流对于经济增长和创造就业至关重要的环境中提高了效率,确定性和安全性。

 

它进一步说,采用AI,物联网(IoT)和区块链可以增加数据收集和分析的机会,以实现更有针对性和更有效的减贫战略。

 

“由于区块链是不可变的,欺诈减少了,从而降低了风险成本,因此在非洲创造就业机会也很大。鉴于非正规部门估计占撒哈拉以南非洲GDP的55%,这些工具可能具有变革性。”

 

这项研究表明,通过移动技术,将充分感受到通过移动电话(例如肯尼亚的M-Pesa)提供的正式金融服务的变革力量,使包括妇女在内的服务水平低下的人,成为可持续消除贫困的重要驱动力。

 

“这些金融服务使家庭可以节省安全的工具,以扩大其资产基础并摆脱贫困循环。”

 

到2030年,非洲的潜在劳动力将成为世界上最大的劳动力之一,因此,与创新和技术使用所需的基础设施和技能相结合,4IR代表了巨大的增长机会。

 

非洲大陆的劳动人口虚拟储蓄产品和短期信贷平台已经包括肯尼亚的M-Shwari,KCB M-Pesa和Equitel,坦桑尼亚的M-Pawa以及乌干达和卢旺达的Mokash。 Mokash已扩展到科特迪瓦。该研究报告称,移动技术和服务在撒哈拉以南非洲地区创造了GDP的8.6%,并在2018年提供了近350万个就业机会。报告补充说,到2023年,移动技术的贡献将达到近1,850亿美元,占GDP的9.1%。

 

人口的教育水平也越来越高,并准备抓住4IR提供的机会。例如,至少受过中等教育的工人比例将从2010年的36%增加到2030年的52%。

 

报告指出,数字化还通过包容性金融影响了经济增长,使无银行账户的人可以通过零售电子支付平台以及虚拟储蓄和信贷供应技术平台进入正式系统。

 

“更广泛地说,数字化使企业家和企业能够重新思考更具影响力,可持续性并与经济其他部门相关联的商业模式。借助金融科技,数字化已经超越了金融领域,影响了实体部门和家庭,改变了整个市场领域的产品设计和商业模式。”

 

“企业能够设计产品并在线交易,个人能够进行金融服务以及购物和投资付款。政府也正在迁移到在线平台,以方便地提供公共服务。”

 

它补充说:“增加金融包容性有助于增加资本积累和投资,从而创造就业机会。”

 

该研究称,非洲还没有充分利用其农业部门的全部潜力,而4IR技术则提供了这样做的机会。仅在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,仅农业就占总就业的60%,并且在2010年至2025年之间,粮食系统预计将提供比经济其他部门更多的就业机会。

 

研究指出,有关竞争性定价的信息提供的农作物信息,疾病预防技巧和减灾支持,有可能改变农业部门,以改善整个非洲大陆的收入,产量和需求。 此外,随着整个大陆收入的增长,消费者对食品和饮料的需求增长将与农产品加工业中企业对企业的增长同时发生。



How Africa can tap tech disruption opportunities

Technological disruption is no longer news to any industry. Terms such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, cloud computing, robotics, 3D printing, and the Internet of Things (IoT) are increasingly becoming commonplace.

 

These disruptive technologies, asserts a new study, can transform Africa if duly utilised. However, concerns linger that Africa may not be entirely prepared to reap the benefits of the so-called Fourth Industrial revolution (4IR).

 

In a recent Brookings Institution study he co-authored with senior fellow Landry Signé, former Central Bank governor Prof Ndung’u, now an executive director at the African economic research consortium, says that so far, “it does not appear that Africa has yet claimed the 21st century, as it still lags behind improvements in ICT sector that have been largely driven by expanding mobile digital financial services.

 

Yet it is not all doom and gloom for Africa. The region had nearly half of global mobile money accounts in 2018 and will see the fastest growth in mobile money through 2025. Mobile technologies and services have generated 1.7 million direct jobs (both formal and informal), contributed to $144 billion (Sh14.4 trillion) of economic value (8.5 percent of the GDP of sub-Saharan Africa), and contributed $15.6 billion (Sh1.6 trillion) to the public sector through taxation, the study show.

 

However, the continent can do more to harness massive opportunities that ride on technological advances. Digitisation, the report says, has resolved information asymmetry problems in the financial system and labour market, thus increasing efficiency, certainty, and security in an environment where information flow is critical for economic growth and job creation.

 

It further says that adoption of AI, the Internet of Things (IoT), and blockchain can enhance opportunities for data gathering and analysis for more targeted and effective poverty reduction strategies.

 

“Since blockchains are immutable, fraud, and thus the cost of risk, is reduced, it also has immense opportunities for job creation in Africa. Given the informal sector is estimated to constitute 55 percent of sub-Saharan Africa GDP, the tools can be transformational.”

 

Through mobile technologies, the transformational power of formal financial services through mobile phones, such as Kenya’s M-Pesa, reaching the underserved, including women, who are important drivers for sustainable poverty eradication, will be fully felt, according to the study.

 

“These financial services allow households to save in secure instruments to enlarge their asset base and escape cycles of poverty.”

 

By 2030, Africa’s potential workforce will be among the world’s largest, and so, paired with the needed infrastructure and skills for innovation and technology use, the 4IR represents a massive opportunity for growth.

 

Already, the continent’s working population virtual savings products and short-term credit platforms include Kenya’s M-Shwari, KCB M-Pesa, and Equitel, M-Pawa in Tanzania, and Mokash in Uganda and Rwanda. Mokash has been extended to Côte d’Ivoire. The study says mobile technologies and services generated 8.6 percent of GDP in sub-Saharan Africa and supported almost 3.5 million jobs in 2018. By 2023, the report adds, mobile’s contribution will reach almost $185 billion, 9.1 percent of GDP.

 

Population is becoming better educated too, and prepared to seize the opportunities provided by the 4IR. For example, the share of workers with at least a secondary education is set to increase from 36 percent in 2010 to 52 percent in 2030.

 

Digitisation, the report notes, has also impacted economic growth through inclusive finance, enabling the unbanked to enter the formal system through retail electronic payments platforms and virtual savings and credit supply technological platforms.

 

“More broadly, digitization is enabling entrepreneurs and businesses to rethink business models that are more impactful, sustainable, and connected to other sectors of the economy. With fintech, digitization has gone beyond the financial sector to affect the real sector and households, transforming product designs and business models across market segments,” the study says

 

“Businesses are able to design products and trade online, and individuals are able to operate financial services and payments for shopping and investments. The government is also migrating to online platforms to conveniently provide public services.”

 

It adds: “Increased financial inclusion contributes to greater capital accumulation and investment, hence potential for employment creation.”

 

Africa has yet to harness the full potential of its agricultural sector too, and 4IR technologies provide an opportunity to do so, the research says. Farming alone accounts for 60 percent of total employment in sub-Saharan Africa, and the food system is projected to add more jobs than the rest of the economy between 2010 and 2025.

 

The study notes that information on competitive pricing, monitored crop information, disease prevention tips, and disaster mitigation, support has the potential to transform the agriculture sector to improve income, production, and demand throughout the continent. Furthermore, as incomes rise across the continent, growing consumer demand for food and beverages will coincide with business-to-business growth in agro-processing.

 



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