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德国电子商务去年增长9.1%,价值约630亿欧元。预计今年德国电子商务将进一步增长大约9%,这意味着德国的电子商务将在2019年底增长到680亿欧元。
该预测来自IFH Kóln(一家市场战略顾问公司),比Handelsverband Deutschland此前的预测乐观得多,后者曾预测德国在线零售业的价值将达到578亿到588亿欧元。
IFH Kóln说,尽管在线增长率正在下降,但绝对增长却保持稳定。2017年的绝对增长近55亿欧元,去年为52亿欧元,今年这一数值可能达到54亿欧元。
快速消费品和DIY是增长动力之一
据IFH Kóln称,与往年一样,在线增长的驱动力主要是快速消费品、收工、园艺行业和家具产品。德国研究所解释说:“整个零售业时尚和消费电子市场的增长疲软,也对在线零售产生影响。”
这些行业在网上交易中的市场份额正在下降,取而代之的是较小的行业,如自行车、家具、个人护理和化妆品的网上销售。
‘Ecommerce Germany will rise to €68 billion in 2019’
Ecommerce in Germany grew 9.1 percent last year and was worth around 63 billion euros. For this year, a further increase of almost 9 percent is expected. This would mean ecommerce in Germany will grow to 68 billion euros at the end of 2019.
The prediction comes from IFH Köln and is a lot more optimistic than previous predictions from Handelsverband Deutschland, which forecasted the German online retail industry would be worth 58.8 or even 57.8 billion euros.
IFH Köln says the online growth rates are declining, while the absolute growth remains stable. The absolute growth was almost 5.5 billion euros in 2017, 5.2 billion euros last year and will be probably be 5.4 billion euros this year.
FMCG and DIY are among the growth drivers
According to IFH Köln, the online growth drivers are, just as in previous years, the fast-moving consumer goods, the DIY & Garden sector and the Home & Furniture goods. “The growth weakness of the fashion and consumer electronics markets in the retail sector as a whole, also have an impact on online retail”, the German institute explains.
These industries are losing market share in online trading, in favor of smaller sectors, such as the online sales of bicycles, furniture and personal care & cosmetics.